A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
